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PRMIA Credit and Counterparty Manager (CCRM) Certificate Exam Sample Questions (Q143-Q148):
NEW QUESTION # 143
Under the KMV Moody's approach to credit risk measurement, how is the distance to default converted to expected default frequencies?
- A. Using migration matrices
- B. Using a proprietary database based on historical information
- C. Using a normal distribution
- D. Using Monte Carlo simulations
Answer: B
Explanation:
KMV Moody's uses a proprietary database to convert the distance to default to expected default probabilities.
NEW QUESTION # 144
An operational loss severity distribution is estimated using 4 data points from a scenario. The management institutes additional controls to reduce the severity of the loss if the risk is realized, and as a result the estimated losses from a 1-in-10-year losses are halved. The 1-in-100 loss estimate however remains the same.
What would be the impact on the 99.9th percentile capital required for this risk as a result of the improvement in controls?
- A. The capital required will decrease
- B. The capital required will stay the same
- C. The capital required will increase
- D. Can't say based on the information provided
Answer: C
Explanation:
This situation represents one of the paradoxes in estimating severity that one needs to be aware of - the improvement in controls reduces the weight of the body/middle of the distribution and moves it towards the tails (as the total probability under the curve must stay at 100%) and the distributionbecomes more heavy tailed. As a result, the 99.9th percentile loss actually increases. instead of decreasing, creating a counterintuitive result. Therefore the correct answer is that the capital required will increase.
If scenario analysis produces such a result, the analyst must question if the 1 in 100 year loss severity is still accurate. If the new control has reduced the severity in the body of the distribution, the question as to why the more extreme losses have not changed should be raised.
NEW QUESTION # 145
Which of the following methods cannot be used to calculate Liquidity at Risk?
- A. Scenario analysis
- B. Analytical or parametric approaches
- C. Historical simulation
- D. Monte Carlo simulation
Answer: B
Explanation:
Analytical or parametric approaches are not useful at all for liquidity at risk calculations because there are no neat distributions available to parameterize the large number of factors that affect the calculations of liquidity inflows and outflows. Historical simulations, Monte Carlo and scenario analysis (which can complement historical scenarios) are all valid choices
NEW QUESTION # 146
Which of the following is the best description of the spread premium puzzle:
- A. The spread premium puzzle refers to the moral hazard implicit in the monoline insurance market
- B. The spread premium puzzle refers to dollar denominated non-US sovereign bonds being priced a at significant discount to other similar USD denominated assets
- C. The spread premium puzzle refers to observed default rates being much less than implied default rates, leading to lower credit bonds being relatively cheap when compared to their actual default probabilities
- D. The spread premium puzzle refers to AAA corporate bonds being priced at almost the same prices as equivalent treasury bonds without offering the same liquidity or guarantee as treasury bonds
Answer: C
Explanation:
Choice 'a' is the correct answer. The other choices represent non-sensical statements.
NEW QUESTION # 147
When compared to a high severity low frequency risk, the operational risk capital requirement for a low severity high frequency risk is likely to be:
- A. Unaffected by differences in frequency or severity
- B. Higher
- C. Lower
- D. Zero
Answer: C
Explanation:
High frequency and low severity risks, for example the risks of fraud losses for a credit card issuer, may have high expected losses, but low unexpected losses. In other words, we can generally expect these losses to stay within a small expected and known range. The capital requirement will be the worst case losses at a given confidence level less expected losses, and in such cases this can be expected to be low.
On the other hand, medium severity medium frequency risks, such as the risks of unexpected legal claims, 'fat- finger' trading errors, will have low expected losses but a high level of unexpected losses. Thus the capital requirement for such risks will be high.
It is also worthwhile mentioning high severity and low frequency risks - for example a rogue trader circumventing all controls and bringing the bank down, or a terrorist strike or natural disaster creating other losses - will probably have zero expected losses & high unexpected losses but only at very high levels of confidence. In other words, operational risk capital is unlikely to provide for such events and these would lie in the part of the tail that is not covered by most levels of confidence when calculating operational risk capital.
Note that risk capital is required for only unexpected losses as expected losses are to be borne by P&L reserves. Therefore the operational risk capital requirements for a low severity high frequency risk is likely to be low when compared to other risks that are lower frequency but higher severity.
Thus Choice 'c' is the correct answer.
NEW QUESTION # 148
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